Blog
Insights on prediction markets, trading strategies, and how to leverage historical data for alpha discovery.
SpaceX IPO on Polymarket: The Market Has Already Priced Day One
Polymarket gives SpaceX a 95.5% open-above-IPO pop but only 69% it closes up — a 26-point fade gap, plus a ~$2.2T implied day-1 cap. Full data.
Polymarket Priced Gkolomeev at 85¢ to Break the Record and 23.5¢ to Win the Race
The Enhanced Games just concluded with one world record and one glaring prediction market anomaly: 85¢ to break the world record, 23.5¢ to win the race. We dug into all 122 markets.
The Summit Was Priced In Before Beijing Confirmed It: Polymarket's Trump-Xi Information Flow
The 'US-China tariff deal by May 31' Yes token moved 10 cents in a single hour at 9 AM UTC on May 8 — before China's foreign ministry confirmed the summit. Here's the data.
Polymarket's Bulgaria Election Call: 83.5¢ Conviction That Never Wavered
Polymarket priced Radev's Progressive Bulgaria at 83.5¢ to win a month before the vote. Here's what the price trajectory and volume ramp reveal about crowd intelligence on niche elections.
Polymarket Tariff Markets 2026: The Court Bet Quietly Climbing to 52 Cents
Deep data analysis of Polymarket's two key tariff markets in 2026: the $497M court refund bet vs. the volatile recession market — and what their divergence reveals.
The Recession Spike-and-Revert: Polymarket's Fear Gauge Hit 44.5¢ Last Night and Already Snapped Back
Polymarket's US recession market spiked to an all-time high of 44.5¢ at 22:00 UTC on April 7 — on 12M volume, the lightest day in weeks. It reversed to 29.5¢ within 20 hours. This is the second identical pattern in five weeks.
Polymarket's Bitcoin Forward Curve Called March Right — And the Rally Was Borrowed Time
How Polymarket's binary touch options on Bitcoin's March price range implied a 90% dip risk to $65K and 39% upside to $75K on Day 1 — and why the market knew the rally would stall.
The $160K Bet: Inside the Polymarket Iran Ceasefire Trade That Looks Like Insider Dealing
Ten coordinated wallets bought Polymarket's Iran ceasefire-by-March-31 market at 6¢ on March 21. Forty-eight hours later the price hit 32¢. We pulled every minute of the data.
From 85% to 6.5%: What Polymarket's Iran War Markets Reveal After 22 Days
On day one of the US-Iran war, Polymarket gave 85% odds of a March 31 ceasefire. It's now at 6.5% — and 88% of traders expect the Strait of Hormuz to be nearly shut by the same date.
Warm Sector, Cold Truth: Atlanta's 28°F Crash and What Polymarket Missed
The March 2026 megastorm delivered the sharpest temperature swing in the US this winter. We tracked how Polymarket's daily weather markets priced — and mostly failed to anticipate — Atlanta's 28°F temperature collapse in 72 hours.
Polymarket's $644M February Jobs Bet: How the Worst Payrolls Print in Years Was Priced
February payrolls came in at -92,000. Polymarket had $644M wagered across seven range markets and still priced the correct outcome at 22 cents the morning it happened. Here's the full price path.
The Oman Fake-Out: How Polymarket Priced Khamenei's Death at 7.5 Cents the Morning Before It Happened
On Feb 27, the US/Israel strikes Iran market hit 7.5¢ after an Oman diplomatic breakthrough. Less than 24 hours later, Khamenei was dead. Here's what the full data shows.
Getting Started with Polymarket Historical Data
Set up a clean first workflow with Polymarket historical data: fetch markets, pull minute data, and structure your first reproducible research notebook.
How to Backtest Polymarket Strategies with 1-Minute Data in Python
Build an execution-aware Polymarket backtest in Python: align minute bars, apply liquidity filters, and simulate realistic fills from historical L2 depth.
OpenClaw + Polymarket: Build a Local Trading Agent With Historical L2 Data
A research-hardened guide to using OpenClaw for Polymarket workflows with strict agent contracts, historical L2 execution checks, and reproducible backtests.
How to Calculate Polymarket Slippage with Historical L2 Order Books
Estimate realistic fill prices on Polymarket using historical L2 depth, weighted fills, and basis-point slippage reporting by regime.
Polymarket Sports Trading Strategies: Model Slippage With Historical L2 Data
Use historical L2 order books to build sports-market backtests that include spread shocks, partial fills, and execution-aware position sizing.